Incompetence, Immorality and BS - The village idiot

Since January 20th I have been closing following all the events of the Federal Government. The Trump White House, Congress, the media, etc. Things have been unfolding so quickly that it has been hard to find the right moment to try to pull all this together.

First of all, nothing that has happened should be a surprise. Donald Trump does not have the temperament to be President. Quinnipiac University’s most recent polls show how the American people describe Trump in a word. The most common words are idiot and incompetent. 

Trump has no ideology beyond his narcissism. He cares nothing about policy or the actual work of the Presidency.  He does not read his intelligence briefings. He has to have people explain to the world him in cartoons that have to fit on one page because of his inability to focus attention. He has no idea what is in the constitution of how the government works. He is a laughing-stock in the face of the world. Incompetence is not even close to how much of a disaster Trump is. 

Trump is now even losing support among his base. But I think it will take unit at least the 2018 mid-terms before his strongest supports realize that all his promises (jobs, health care, the Muslim-Ban, the Mexico Wall) will NEVER be fulfilled. 

What we know today:

The Russian Connection

It is a fact that Russia interfered with our election. There are ties to Russia among some of Trump's present and former advisers (Flynn, Manafort and now Kushner). This diagram is an excellent source to help explain it all. At this point it is not clear how much of this has potential legal ramifications. The investigation is on-going. But the political impact is becoming clearer. My expectation is that there are significant ties to Trump's business interests with Russia.

Obstruction of Justice

Trump's firing of FBI Director James Comey and his admission that he fired Comey to stop the investigation into the Russian-Trump ties mind-boggling.   The day Comey testifies before Congress will be quite an important and potentially earth-shaking day. Lots more to be investigated here.
Trump's appointment of a new FBI Director will test the Republicans to ensure that the person is NOT a political appointee.

"But whether the President's conduct is or is not within the letter of the law is irrelevant; there's a really good reason why, for generations, presidents from across the ideological spectrum have respected the principle of not interfering in federal criminal investigations. That President Trump seems wholly indifferent to this principle, or the potentially devastating consequences of its demise, is the real scandal here." - Steve Vladeck, CNN legal analyst and professor of law at the University of Texas School of Law.

Lies vs. BS

At a certain point all of Trump's lies will come back to haunt him because his credibility will be close to zero. This opinion post helps to separate Trump's use of BS which gets to the essence of how all of this erodes any trust the public, government and the world may have in him. His BS basically tries to cover up the truth.

What is the future?

Trump resigns - It's hard to believe that he would ever give up and resign. The White House is now in permanent crisis mode. This means that nothing is going to get done on Trump's legislative agenda while the investigation is on-going. That's a good thing considering his specific legislative agenda. 

However, we need to be fearful what happens in the foreign policy area. 

Trump dies in office -  He does not exercise or diet. He lives on junk food. Stress level is high. Who knows?

Removal under 25th amendment - Not going to happen under a Republican Congress unless there is some major world event that the entire country believes Trump cannot manage.

Impeachment -  Won't happen unless there is a Democratic congress elected in 2018. Republicans will start to jump ship if the mid-terms are a disaster for them.

Trump Finishes one-term and is defeated for re-election 

Why is James Buchanan (our 15th President) smiling?

I decided to wait for my next blog post until the one month anniversary of Trump's inauguration.
To me it feels like we are 3 years into a "normal" Presidency. But norms are for history.
Donald Trump's race to be the worst administration in American history is without precedent.

To commemorate this year's President's Day, I read the annual analysis by well known historians to rate the former President's of the Unites States. The consensus, of the past 50 years or so is that the top four Presidents are Washington, Lincoln, Theodore Roosevelt and Franklin Roosevelt.  (from that point there is more general consensus on groupings of the next in line. (Good, Fair, Poor, etc).
There is also consensus on the worst President, James Buchanan. The 15th President did nothing to try to stop the country from civil war.  (Not that he truly could have stopped the inevitable).

For many of us this is not a surprise. We saw it all during the campaign.  Being a business man is not like understanding how to manage policy decisions through building consensus and Congress.

Just as a reminder the major issues over the past month have been:

• A complete failure of an executive order to manage immigration control
• The firing of a national security advisor (and the Russian thing exploding out of control)
• The rejection of a Labor Secretary nominee.
• The failed military raid in Yemen.

What is happening, behind the scenes are all the policy changes that are being done to roll-back decisions of the Obama administration. These include changes concerning carbon emissions,  water pollution, gun control, business regulations, health care and so many more. It's the pro-business agenda of greed. (What's good for General Motors (i.e. business) is good for the US). Plus the  economy, environment, and taking care of the less-fortunate be damned.  Scary! 

Instead of "draining the swamp", he has nominated cabinet members who are there to destroy their departments.  (Lots of former Goldman-Sachs alumni). 

The utter incompetency, the blatant lies (alternative facts) and the racism are beyond description.

His press conference of three days ago was beyond belief. He even lies about obvious facts. 

His press conference with the Prime Minister of Israel was surreal. The analysts were trying to figure out what he meant as if he was being cryptic.  News Flash. He has no clue abut what one-state, two-states or the history and complexities of the Middle East. He could care less.

This morning we woke up to this tweet. Trump needs an enemy.  Every president has had a contentious relationship with the press. That is the nature of a democracy. But  with this tweet, he has declared war on the first amendment.  SICK!  

Seems like all he does is watch the news programs and gauge their reactions to him. 

So now anything that is not to his liking is "Fake News".  More like he is the "Fake President" (I wish).

Two of my favorite podcasts are from Dan Carlin.  Hard Core History (for history junkies like myself)  and Common Sense.  While I certainly don't agree with Dan on everything he is very thought provoking and engaging. I know that he has an excellent background in historical context.

You can't understand the present without knowledge of history.

I strongly suggest you download "Common Sense 313 - Get me a Glassful of Water."

He is struggling, like all of us, to figure out where we are going from here.  Post your feedback and thoughts on this blog post. 

The United States of Racism

One of my heroes is Franklin Delano Roosevelt. Stricken by polio at an early age he did not let this devastating disease to keep him from his professional and personal goals. He was elected to the Presidency four times. He gave the country hope to survive the great depression and the very darkest years before and during WW II.  Historians agree that those years, when he was struggling with polio, allowed him to gain deep insights and develop much personal empathy for the American people and their very real personal and economic problems in the depths of the great depression. More on that in a future blog post.

In FDR's First Inaugural address (March 1933) he stated:
"I am certain that my fellow Americans expect that on my induction into the Presidency I will address them with a candor and a decision which the present situation of our people impel. This is preeminently the time to speak the truth, the whole truth, frankly and boldly. Nor need we shrink from honestly facing conditions in our country today. This great Nation will endure as it has endured, will revive and will prosper. So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself—nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance. In every dark hour of our national life a leadership of frankness and vigor has met with that understanding and support of the people themselves which is essential to victory. I am convinced that you will again give that support to leadership in these critical days."

Eight years later, after the bombing of Pearl Harbor by Japan there was something other to fear other than fear itself.  The irrational and racist fear of Japanese citizens of the US. This lead to the Japanese Internment, ordered by FDR shortly after  the attack on Pearl Harbor. It was the forced relocation and incarceration in camps of about 120,000 people of Japanese ancestry who lived on the Pacific coast. More than 60% of whom were US Citizens. A truly shameful action all caused by irrational fear.

I do not think the United States is a racist country. Nor am I calling anyone a racist, though I could make a very long list. But there are so many examples in US History that irrational  fear directly results in shameful acts that endanger our freedom and the values that are the foundation of this country. 

"We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights, that among these are life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness." - US Declaration of Independence.

President John Adams, in the late 18th century signed the Alien and Sedition laws. They made it harder for an immigrant to become a citizen and allowed the President to imprison and deport non-citizens who were deemed dangerous. Even worse it criminalized making statements critical of the federal government.  At the time the US was a small and weak nation in a world of European super powers (England, France, Spain). But throwing out due process of law, not to mention the First Amendment was another shameful act.

The institution of slavery, the 100 years of Jim Crow after the Civil War, and the continuing fight for Civil Rights is a topic in it's own right. Institutionalized racism continues to exist. Shameful.

In 1882 the Congress passed the Chinese Exclusion Act prohibiting all immigration of Chinese laborers. After the Chinese came here the build the railroads they were told they were not wanted. Thanks for building the railroads. Now leave.  It was the first law implemented to prevent a specific ethnic group from immigrating to the United States. It was repealed in 1943.

The US has a long history of restricting immigration. The immigration act of 1924 imposed the first permanent numerical limits and began a national-origin quota system.  The law was primarily aimed at further restricting immigration of Southern and Eastern Europeans especially Italians and Eastern European Jews. Jews trying to escape the Holocaust of Nazi Germany found the doors to the US slammed shut. See "While Six Million Died - A chronicle of American Apathy".
In addition, it severely restricted the immigration of Africans and outright banned the immigration of Arabs and Asians. 

In the 1950s, the fear of communism was the root cause of Senator Joseph McCarthy's shameful witch hunts against alleged communists in politics and the arts. Very few people stood up to him. See the Army-McCarthy hearings.

Now we come to Trump's travel ban on seven Muslim-majority nations.  A major statement of America's new posture towards Islam. This is NOT going to make us safer. It is going to do the exact opposite. It is going to only foster more radical Islamic fundamentalism.

Not to mention the the ban on ALL Syrian refugees means that the US is showing no compassion for the victims of this awful humanitarian crisis.

Just to be clear. It is a Muslim Ban. It is about Religion.  It is NOT about Terror.

Lastly, the incompetent way this was rolled out by the administration (total chaos) only portends more of the same. It's not like we did not know all about Trump's lack of policy experience and his total incompetence.

When will we ever learn?

Andrea Nicole Baker

"america first" and isolationism

Hearing the words "America First", in Trump's Inauguration speech, brought to mind many events in American History where uneducated people who think, because we live between two oceans we can retreat from the rest of the world. Not to mention those in the Midwest who feel themselves even more "insulated" from the rest of world.

I'll never forget, maybe 20 years ago, reading a letter to the editor in the local newspaper which suggested that we should be "Fortress America".  That we are so lucky we have two oceans between us and that we should build a giant wall all around the country. Obviously my first thoughts were that this person has no clue about how the US is so inter-connected with the rest of the world for trade, resources, security, our standard of living and so much more.  Can someone be truly so close-minded and ignorant of reality?

American isolationism in the 1930s and the "America First" committee is the most recent and stark example. The fact is that the Great Depression and the losses in WWI (especially that the Versailles Treaty to end WWI only guaranteed another World War) tilted US public opinion and policy towards isolationism. That meant non-involvement in Asian and European conflicts and also in International Politics.

In 1937 as the situation in Europe continued to grow worse and the Second Sino-Japanese War began in Asia,  President Roosevelt likened international aggression to a disease that other nations must work to “quarantine.”  

Enter the America First Committee (AFC) in 1940 which strongly opposed America's involvement in WW II. By that time  Hitler had invaded Poland (Sept 1939), and was marching through Europe.  The allies (Britain and France) were unable to resist the Nazi military. France had already capitulated. Russia had a non-aggression pact with Germany which allowed it to pursue its own expansionist interests. The majority of American opposed American entry in the war to help Britain.  The AFC opposed FDR and his lend-lease program which was to to help Britain with equipment but could not do much else with the current political climate.

There were several hundred chapters of the AFC in the US of which the great majority (2/3) would be in the Midwest. Charles Lindbergh served as the committee's principal spokesman.

A sacred trust - Richard Nixon's Betrayal and Treason

"People have got to know whether or not their president is a crook. Well, I'm not a crook. "

- On November 17, 1973, President Richard Nixon infamously denied any involvement in the Watergate scandal with his now timeless defense.  Of course, as we learned at the Watergate and impeachment hearings  in 1973-74 Nixon was the principal in the Watergate cover up.  In legal terms "Obstruction of Justice."

I have always held that Richard Nixon was the most morally corrupt person in the history of the Presidency. His fatal character flaws were his paranoia, his bigotry (his racial slurs and his southern strategy) and, for a public person, his inability to connect with people at a personal and humane level. 

Nixon's betrayal of the public trust fueled a general cynicism and antagonism that people have felt toward presidents and the federal government ever since.— Presidential historian Robert Dallek

The incredible thing is that his Presidency was not a failure. Both in foreign affairs and domestic policy he had some significant accomplishments. The openings to the USSR and China and the creation of the EPA are examples. Also, Nixon served his country in WW II.

Now we learn the truth of what we have always suspected which, in my opinion, is far worse that the Watergate cover up.   That Nixon sabotaged the 1968 Vietnam peace talks. This is the recent article in the NY Times.

“My God. I would never do anything to encourage South Vietnam “not to come to the table,” Nixon told Johnson, in a conversation captured on the White House taping system.

Nixon feared that the peace talks could give his opponent, Hubert Humphrey, an edge in the 1968 election.  New documents show that Nixon  intentionally scuttled negotiations to end the Vietnam War for political gain. On Oct. 22, 1968, he ordered Haldeman to “monkey wrench” the initiative. 
His actions violated federal law, which prohibits private citizens from trying to "defeat the measures "of the United States. In another word "Treason".  How many Americans and Vietnamese died needlessly for Nixon's  own political gains? 

At the Nixon-Frost set of interviews the most damning statement from Nixon was:
 "When the President does it, that means that it is not illegal.  

According to Nixon the President is above the law.

"“A government of laws, and not of men.”   John Adams .
In his 7th “Novanglus” letter, published in the Boston Gazette in 1774 

This has been a primary element that has separated the United States from most every nation in History.

“My fellow Americans, our long national nightmare is over. Our Constitution works. Our great Republic is a government of laws and not of men. Here the people rule.”  Gerald Ford Aug 9, 1974.
Of course, Ford gave Nixon a pardon not much later.  But that's a topic for another post.

We are now facing  the next four years of a President who not only is a minority president but has significant legitimacy issues.  Whose basic values are power and greed.  A true demagogue.
Will this be a country of laws or a county of powerful and rich people like the Roman (so-called) Republic?

Electoral College Final Word: Democracy in Danger

Nate Cohn, of the NY Times, wrote a column on Dec 19th which pretty well sums up the results of the election and why the system no longer works.  I greatly appreciate this analytics based perspective.
The history of how certain states were created is also quite fascinating.

In the end, Mr. Trump won for a simple reason: The Electoral College’s (largely) winner-take-all design gives a lot of weight to battleground states. Mr. Trump had an advantage in the traditional battlegrounds because most are whiter and less educated than the country as a whole.

(As I said in my blog post about the history of the Electoral college, what it does is create swing states). It’s the Electoral College’s most straightforward bias: The battleground states count the most.  In the end, Trump won the battleground states by just a one-point margin — but claimed three-fourths of their Electoral College votes. He won four of the five closest states, winning 75 of 79 votes at stake. There has never been a close election in the United States in which one candidate has claimed such a resounding electoral vote margin out of the closest states.

The 2016 National Vote Tracker is here. Hillary Clinton received nearly 3 million more popular votes than Trump with about a 2.1% overall vote lead. You can also see the vote numbers of swing state vs non-swing states.  As stated in my previous blog post, at what point will the American people be fed up with this travesty (aka The Electoral college) which is an anachronism of the past. 

It only makes it worse that Trump claims that "millions" voted illegally. There is absolutely no evidence of voter fraud.  Not only does this "disenfranchise" those who voted for his opponents but all of this is to distract people from all of Trump's potential conflicts of interest. It's not exactly the way to "bring everyone together". He is a minority president with no mandate for any change.

After the last 8 years of the "Zero Sum Game" were going to spend the next 4 years under the same situation.  The "zero sum game", in brief, is  "You Win means I lose". It was the way the Roman Republic was managed.  Each year they elected two consuls. They were afraid of too much power in one person's hands.  So one consul could never let the other succeed and get credit for his accomplishments. The Republic ended when Julius Caesar got tired of that game and became the Emperor of Rome.

That got me thinking about whether our democracy is in danger? Then I found this interesting column (Is Trump a threat to democracy), that poses the same question.  

Obviously the period of time leading to, and including the civil war, nearly was the cause of the complete breakup of the United States. We barely survived that but at a great price which we are still paying today. 


What are the warning signs today, if any?

The first is that nearly half of the eligible voting population did not vote. Basically, the polls have shown that they have no faith in the system. The outstanding question, as it relates to the Electoral College System, is how long can the will of the voters be thwarted before there is a real revolution? If  "One person, One Vote" is good enough for all state and local elections then why not for President?

Some other warning signs mentioned in the column:

• The ascent of anti-democratic politicians into mainstream politics.
• An even more basic norm under threat today is the idea of legitimate opposition. 

"It is less clear, however, how democracy would fare in a crisis. In the event of a war, a major terrorist attack or large-scale riots or protests — all of which are entirely possible — a president with authoritarian tendencies and institutions that have come unmoored could pose a serious threat to American democracy."

These are the same questions I posed in my recent post about how effective Trump will be at governing especially and being able to rally the country around his leadership in times of crisis.

Hope and Prayers that somehow we can survive the next four years with a true demagogue as President. 

Remembering Pearl Harbor 75 years ago - Veterans History Project

Seventy-five years ago today, the Imperial Japanese Navy launched a surprise attack on the U.S. naval base at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. Within two hours, 2,403 Americans lost their lives and 1,178 more were wounded in one of the deadliest attacks on U.S. soil. In response, the following day President Franklin D. Roosevelt asked Congress to declare war on the Empire of Japan, a member of the Axis powers. Two days later, with declarations against Germany and Italy, the U.S. formally entered World War II. Pearl Harbor will forever be remembered as a turning point in our nation's history and a defining event in our collective memory.

Learn more about this unforgettable day in the these interviews , collected by Atlanta History Center's Veterans History Project. 

Author Nicholas Best has written a new book, Seven Days of Infamy: Pearl Harbor Across the World, which dives into the details of the days surrounding the attack and the the perspectives from persons around the world. 

The attack finally brought the US into World War II with all its military and industrial might.  The attack was a Japanese strategic failure because the intention was to destroy the three US aircraft carriers (Enterprise, Lexington, and Saratoga). But, as luck would have it, they were not at Pearl Harbor that day. They were out delivering aircraft to US bases in the Pacific Theater.