The 2nd American Civil War

Freedom’s just another word for nothing left to lose…

When one looks back at history, one can see trends, inflection points and make educated assessments about what were the things that caused events to fall into place. For example, the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria which made “The Great War” inevitable. After that point it was impossible to pull things back from the precipice. 

It’s much harder to look 10, 20 or 30 years forward into the future and pinpoint those key moments because we're are always much too focused on the day-to-day events. 

The process of choosing Supreme Court Justices

I believe that the broken norm of allowing the sitting president of the United State to fill a vacancy in the Supreme Court is one of them. Mitch McConnell and the GOP stole a supreme court seat by the  false argument that  the country should wait for the upcoming election results in 2016. It was a blind power grab because the Republicans had the majority in the Senate. Nothing in the constitution about this. At the time of Scalia's passing it was 9 months before the November election.

The other norm that has been broken was the lifting of the filibuster on Supreme Court nominations. That required 60 votes. Now it only requires 50 or 51. What that meant was that the 60 vote threshold ensured a consensus on both sides of the aisle. Fringe candidates would have a huge challenge getting to 60 votes.

Electoral College does not represent the will of the people

We now have had two recent elections where the President-Elect was not the choice of the majority of the voting electorate (2000 and 2016).  The will of the people is being denied because the Electoral College does not work in these modern times.  (see my recent blog post about the EC for details).

The President has the responsibility of choosing Supreme Court justices with the advice and consent of the Senate.  History shows that the rulings of the SC lag behind the trend of the country as expressed by voters. But this catches up when new Presidents put new justices on SC.

This is no longer happening. How long can a democracy survive without the will of the people being expressed through their government?

Erosions of our freedoms by congress and the Supreme Court

One of the most important freedoms is access to the ballot box. Republicans are using gerrymandering and voter suppression to ensure lower turnout by minorities to win elections.

2016 Congressional election results:

• Republicans, received a plurality of votes cast for Congress 49.1 percent, and they received a greater share, 55.2 percent, of the seats.
• Democrats, won a smaller share of seats than they did votes: 44.8 percent of seats as compared to 48.0 percent of the votes.  

The past three congressional elections in 2010, 2012, and 2014 were characterized by Democratic House candidates securing a greater share of the vote than seats.

Again, the will of the people is not being represented.  (A purely proportional system, by contrast, would ensure that the party that wins 50 percent of the votes receives 50 percent of the seats.)

The four most recent decisions by the Supreme Court exhibit this trend.  All of these decisions were.   5-4 (conservatives vs liberals). Justice Kennedy siding with the conservatives on each one.

• The upholding of Trump's travel ban (ignoring the racist basis for the ban)
• The Janus case dealing a blow to organized labor
• Siding with anti-abortion pregnancy centers
• Upholding Republican drawn gerrymandering of Congressional districts

Income Inequality

From 2000 though 2006, the number of Americans living in poverty increased 15 percent. By 2006, nearly 33 million Americans earned less that $10 an hour. Their annual income is less than $20,614. This is below the poverty level for a family of four. Most of these low-wage workers receive no health insurance, sick days or pension plans from their employers. That means they can't get ill and have no hope of retiring. During this same period, average wages remained flat. That’s despite an increase of worker productivity of 15 percent. Corporate profits increased 13 percent per year, according to "The Big Squeeze" by Steven Greenhouse.

After passing the huge income tax reform law which was a huge giveaway to the rich and to businesses you can expect the Republicans to come back and cry about the deficit. Their only solution will be to cut medicare and social security. That affect the middle class and below most. 

White Nationalism and the inevitable changing demographics

White nationalism is a term that originated among white supremacists as a euphemism for white supremacy. Eventually, some white supremacists tried to distinguish it further by using it to refer to a form of white supremacy that emphasizes defining a country or region by white racial identity and which seeks to promote the interests of whites exclusively, typically at the expense of people of other backgrounds.  White nationalism explained.

White nationalism which seeks to develop and maintain a white national VS the inevitable changing demographics where white people will be in the minority. 

Some of the key demographic trends:

• Americans are more racially and ethnically diverse than in the past, and the U.S. is projected to be even more diverse in the coming decades.
• Asia has replaced Latin America (including Mexico) as the biggest source of new immigrants to the U.S.
• America’s demographic changes are shifting the electorate – and American politics. 
• Millennials, young adults born from 1981 to 1996, are the new generation to watch. They are the most racially diverse adult generation in American history.
• Women’s role in the labor force and leadership positions has grown dramatically. 
• The American family is changing. The 2 parent household is in decline.
• The share of Americans who live in middle class households is shrinking. 
• Christians are declining as a share of the U.S. population, and the number of U.S. adults who do not identify with any organized religion has grown. 
• The world’s religious makeup will look a lot different by 2050
• The world is aging

·      The outlook for a more progressive and inclusive America is strong. But it will take a couple of generations (30+ years) to undo the damage being done now with more to come.

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The Presidency

To say the least, Donald Trump is not a President who provides moral leadership. Trump's presidency can be defined by 4 corrosive qualities: 

• unbridled cruelty
• utter incompetence
• outspoken bigotry
• shameless self-dealing

It is a toxic mix, with horrifying consequences for America. He "won" the Presidency through the vagaries of the Electoral College, voter suppression by the Republicans and Russian interference in the election. Also, that there were 91 million eligible voters who did to bother to vote. (That 91 million also includes those who were suppressed)

The Culture Wars

For the last 40 or so years the US has been engaged in what is known as “The Culture Wars”

A Struggle to control the family, art, education, law, & politics.

These are the political and social hostilities generated from differing systems of moral understanding involving such issues as abortion, homosexuality, families, education, laws, elections, censorship, media, and the arts. Now the culture wars are the issues-centered conflicts between two passionately polarized groups, the "conservatives" and the "progressive."

Roe v. Wade / Health Care

The fight over the next Supreme Court justice is going to be all about abortion rights. The so-called "right-to-life" folks want "Roe" overturned. Trump's litmus test is a "Pro-life" judge. 

The facts are that two-thirds of the American public do NOT want Roe v. Wade overturned. 

I expect strong pressure on Republican female Senators Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski to vote against confirming a "pro-life" judge.

Expect 20+ states to pass anti-abortion laws in the next 6 months. Because they know there will be 5 or 6 votes to overdue Roe v. Wade and make abortion illegal all over the US. It will be gone because Donald Trump won the election.  (Thanks to everyone who voted for a 3rd party or stayed home. Elections have consequences. Say what you will about Hillary Clinton but she would have appointed centrist justices at the very least. 

Also,  as long are we are mentioning health care, expect the Republicans to get the Supreme Court  to finally declare the Affordable Care Act (ACA) unconstitutional.

What's next up - a 2nd civil war?

According to recent polls nearly 1/3 of American voters think a 2nd civil war is likely very soon. 
This is an interesting article about what a 2nd civil war would look like from "Foreign Policy Magazine.  

I define a civil war when civil discourse breaks down and the level of violence goes up. Will the fabric of society break down?

Those on the right who feel they are marginalized fear the changing and inevitable demographics.  They are doing everything they can to hold on to power which means voter suppression and demagoguery from Trump. A pack full of lies and red meat for his followers.

Then there are so many of us, the majority,  who see freedoms disappearing, wealth in the hands of the one percent, and no ability to effect change.

If the SC becomes an institution that blindly takes us 50+ years or more in the past they will lose all respect as an institution. They already have lost much with the Bush v Gore decision among others. That will be the trigger.

In "How Democracies Die" Steven Levitsy and Daniel Ziblatt explain that democracy depends on a number of guardrails. As soon as one sees these signs of authoritarian behavior it is time to take action.  All of these four have been exhibited by Donald Trump.

• rejection of democratic rules of the game
• denial of political opponents
• tolerance and encouragement of violence 
• a readiness to curtail liberties of opponents, including the media

Demagogues exist in all democracies.  Authoritarians must be identified and then kept from making a power base in that political party. Successful gate keeping requires that mainstream parties isolate and defeat extremist forces ("distancing") which can be done in one of four ways:

1. Keep would-be authoritarians off ballots 
2. Root out extremists at the grass roots level
3. Avoid all alliances with anti-democratic parties & candidates
4. Systematically isolate, rather than legitimize, extremists.

The Republicans faced miserably in that challenge.

Alexander Hamilton wrote in the Federalist Papers that "of the men who have overturned the liberty of republics, the great number have begun their career by paying an obsequious cost to people commencing demagogues, and ending as tyrants."

2018 Elections

The story goes that as Benjamin Franklin emerged from Independence Hall at the close of the Constitutional Convention in Philadelphia on September 18, 1787, a woman asked him, “Well Doctor, what have we got, a republic or a monarchy?”

Mr. Franklin replied, “A republic, madam – if you can keep it.”

The 2018 election mid-term election is absolutely critical to put the Congress in the hands of the Democrats as a check on the Republican Party.  While I usually do not endorse a political party this time it is absolutely critical as a check on the authoritarian president.

Lastly, I do expect that the Mueller investigation will have more indictments before labor day and maybe a lot more. But that is just a guess.  The one thing we do know is that the trial of Paul Manafort, Trump's former campaign manager, will begin on July 25th in Virginia.  His DC trial date is September 17th.

There is huge constitutional crisis coming sometime soon. Will the Supreme Court stand for the rule of law or not?  If not will this country become an oligarchy like Russia?